✳️Off-Piste 2025 Predictions
Three predictions on where trail running will go in 2025
Hey pals👋,
Happy New Year and all, hope you had a good’un.
I spent a bit of time trying to explain to friends what Trailmix is and why the heck I write it. As I was detailing the myriad of interesting things about the trail running business, my friend Petty, the pun-ny man he is, described trail running as a ‘dirty business’, a phrase I am now going to steal. Puts a unique twist to Jason Derulo’s classic ‘Talk Dirty’ (although search ‘talk dirty’ on Spotify and you’re in for a mix of cyclocross and smutty podcasts…)
Anyway, we’re back with some 2025 predictions. I have no doubt trail running will continue to grow, UTMB will continue to divide opinions, and more runners will wear Hokas – that’s all a given. I’ve decided to go a little off-piste with three forecasts based on events of the past year and vibes. I’m sure I’ll be wrong, but the point is to be provocative, not right.
I also want to hear your predictions. Whether it’s wishful thinking, probably will happen, or might happen, I want to hear them all. Reply to this email, comment or send a pigeon with your thoughts and I’ll feature some of them in the next post.
Onwards,
Matt
Group Racing Formats Take Off
What: Team based racing formats will enter road and trail running in a more competitive way.
Explain…: After Covid, many city dwellers discovered running doesn’t have to be a solitary grind-fest but can also be a social activity. This has given rise to a near endless stream of run clubs popping up everywhere. Any shop/brand/café/bank that wants to ‘engage with it’s community’ has started a run club. I’ve even seen dating run clubs where you can find your ideal suitor by checking out their banter at a 7-minute mile pace. Speed dating, if you will.
This group run dynamic has also played out in the rise of relays. The Speed Project is the hypey version of this, where teams race over hundreds of kilometres together. In the UK the Unsanctioned Project have created various formats over the years that have had teams run across cities in an almost orienteering fashion to compete for the top prize. No longer are relays the realm of Olympians who aren’t quite fast enough for the 100m or 200m team, but are places for friends to have shared adventures through the medium of running.
Simultaneously the discussion around brand teams in trail running has started to rise. Brands have always sponsored athletes in running, but there currently isn’t an incentive for runners to compete as a team. The World Trail Series created a team prize last year as a tester of appetites, but I haven’t heard anyone mention this initiative after its buzzy launch.
My prediction is thus centred more on the average runner – I can see a place where team-based trail racing formats become more of a frequent feature on runner’s annual racing plans as more formats open up.
Trail Running Brands Discover Life Behind the Front Runners
What: Running shoe and apparel brands will market more of their shoes and gear to the average runner.
Explain…: Most runners do not run fast or with good form. Make up your own mind on what fast means, whether that’s sub 3 marathon, sub 20 5k, or something else – it doesn't matter. Most running brands market their products to the top end speedsters knowing the mid-pack and beyond runner will follow suit on whatever makes them faster.
For a long time that has made sense since the pool of frequent runners was large enough to create a sustainable pool of recurring revenue as these tarmac slappers tore through the rubber on their shoes. Pair that with imagery of fast boys and gals in your wavy garb with motivational messaging and you have yourself a sports apparel and shoe brand.
Now the pool of people who run but don’t identify as a runner and people who run for leisure is too big to ignore. With the rise of running clubs, running as a ‘lifestyle’, and shorter racing formats, most brands have begun to tailor their marketing and products to capture this audience.
Think Salomon’s investment in ‘lifestyle’ retail outlets and making over 40% of its revenue.
Think Nike’s campaign on the post-marathon stairwell struggles.
Even On is bringing out a plated shoe next year that’s built around the fact that the average runner’s foot strike is not specific enough to get the full propulsive benefit from most plated shoes.
In reality, the long tail of runners has always been larger than the few top-end athletes, but few brands have made concerted prolonged efforts to address these audiences specifically. In trail, there are only a few smaller brands that market specifically to the everyday runner (Harrier in the UK do this particularly well).
I can see the number of trail running brands specifically building products and marketing campaigns catering to the average runner increasing significantly over the next year.
It’s Going to be a Quiet Year for the Racing Series’
What: After a few frantic years, the global racing scene will have less changes as WTM, GTS and UTMB all begin to embed themselves in athlete’s racing calendars.
Explain…: Most weeks, either UTMB or GTS does something questionable providing me with easy stories to write about. This has been the bread and butter of most trail running media outlets as both series test and tweak their business models and formats to be sustainable and profitable. After a couple of years of this, I think we’re due for a fallow period.
Consider UTMB. After a controversial start to 2024 with the Zach and Killian debacle, it turned out to be a plain sailing year of growth and stability. Sure, there are still changes to be made for athletes to actually want to compete in UTMB Mont-Blanc and not tap out because it’s hot. But they’ve found Ironman’s model works. Go figure.
GTS is where I think I might be wrong. When GTS released their new-look world tour and national series late last year, it was obvious that GTS is still unsure about how it can create the event series that it so desires. One that both captures the imaginations of viewers and challenges athletes to compete at their best (whilst making Salomon some extra wonga). How this year’s new races play out will determine how settled GTS is moving forward.
WTM is sitting in the wings and with the new short trail series announced last week, it will be fascinating to watch it grow and compete for professional athletes with UTMB and GTS. However, it’s not quite reached the same scale of appreciation as a cohesive series as the others, but rather a set of separate events with an extra sticker in the gift shop.
That’s not say the events themselves won’t be exciting, or that us media folk won’t talk about them as much, but more that after years of finding their way, trail running racing series’ will settle into this new normal.
My predictions (which were on The Trailhead podcast a couple episodes ago):
1) Super Shoes are a total thing on the trail, whether you know it, like it, or not. At the WS100 you had to go to #10 Male for someone not wearing Pebax, and for Female down to #17!
2) Remember the weird “Birther” thing when some Republicans said Obama was not born in the United States? I’m going to accuse Kilian Jornet of the same thing - I want to see his Birth Certificate, because I’m convinced he’s from another planet. His Alpine Connections project started 3 days after his CR at Sierre-Zinal. I was at S-Z and he finished eating lunch before I finished my race.
3) Carb doping. Who’d have thunk? Keto is way out, pounding sugar is in, and dentists are either very happy or unhappy, depending on if they’re saving up to buy a second home in Cabo. 500 calories an hour is a LOT. Instead of finishing a race and feeling famished, now I finish and can’t eat for hours because my stomach feels like I just ate all the Halloween candy at once.
4) Either Courtney Dauwalter or Katie Shide will win the Female Ultra Runner of the Year Award. Am I a genius or what? But I have no idea what Kilian will do next - hopefully not wingsuit flying.
5) I would like to predict that Strava will add Dancing as one of its Activities, seeing as they already have Handcycle, Wheelchair, and Badminton, but I’ve been lobbying for this for 8 years, so this is not likely. I won’t be able to impress anyone with number of lifts and spins, and will have to stick with miles and vertical feet.
I wonder about the continuing growth in the 200+ mile race scene - how many people out there really want to run these, and more importantly, how many people out there are willing to volunteer at aid stations for these? At some point I have to imagine it's going to get harder and harder to put these one, especially as the scene grows and they compete more and more for runners and volunteers. The number of participants is growing, no doubt, but it seems like the number of races is growing faster.