✳️On and Arc’teryx Strike whilst Salomon Shifts Focus

A Trailmix of News and Opinions about the Business of Trail Running

Hey pals,

What can i say, it was the first proper sunny weekend of the year. I did my best sunflower impression and absorbed all the rays. Hence this newsletter is a day late, but i hope you all understand :)

This week we have a slight change in format - more news, but blended into a more informal package. Let me know your thoughts.

Also - I’m working on a project that involves chatting to founders in the running space, but I’m struggling to get a balance of women to male founders. If anyone can recommend some female founders I would greatly appreciate it :)

Hope you have a spectacular week,

Matt

On’s Outdoor Offensive

On’s presence in the road running space is well established. However, a position in the trail space has always alluded them without a solid well-renowned shoe to rely on (a friend once said that running downhill in On’s early trail shoes was like running on 2 by 4s). However, this year they’re seeking a bit of a turn around. With fresh marketing investment and new shoes being released, On are aiming to secure their position on the podium and in the industry. This week On announced a sponsorship of Trailcon, the trail running conference started by Dylan Bowman, Brendan Madigan and Doug Emslie last year. Neatly this secures their exposure midweek in a packed schedule in Olympic Valley, sandwiched between Broken Arrow and Western States, where Salomon and Hoka will respectively be contesting for eyeballs. How they show up will be crucial for capitalising on a time-period where Hoka will be starting their build up to States and in an event that will have less attention than both races (not even a surprise appearance by Elmo will be enough). Following the women’s 2nd and 3rd at Transgrancanaria 126km both wearing Ons, the year is starting well for them.

On-wards.

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Arc’teryx and Salomon begin to Overlap

Trail running is becoming a bigger priority in the Amer Sports portfolio, Salomon and Arcteryx’s owners, as snow sports sales softened and Tennis products face potential headwinds due to Trump’s tariffs.

In their FY2024 Salomon surpassed $1bn in footwear sales for the first time with apparel, bags and socks experiencing strong momentum, signalling a push for a more comprehensive trail running lifestyle offering. Meanwhile poor snow conditions and consequent cautious wholesale orders caused the winter sports section of Amer’s Outdoor Performance segment to retreat, leaving their summer sports taking up a greater share of their portfolio.

More broadly, Amer did clarify that the lifestyle side of Salomon is the primary driver of their footwear growth and an area they are leaning more into after their first ‘Sportstyle’ store opening in Soho, London and their pop-up in NYC.

In a separate 12-minute online presentation on Thursday evening, Arc’teryx laid out the expansion of their footwear line, doubling down on the trail and mountain running section of their line-up. Since 2022, Arc’teryx’s footwear sales have tripled, now making up 10% of their overall revenue. The four new shoes announced are purportedly built for valley to summit, but as with all Arcy products they lean into a more technical and higher-up-the-mountain functionality.

As Arc’teryx begins its ascendency into trail running, I wonder how Amer will manage the overlap between Salomon and Arc’teryx’s trail shoes without cannabalising each other. Currently Amer are attempting to explain the difference as Arc’teryx’s footwear is for the hybrid mountain athlete vs Salomon being for the performance focused trail runner, which limits Arc’teryx’s market size for Salomon’s sake. Distribution is also another conundrum where Amer could take up more space on the famous running shoe wall in specialty retailers, or it could keep a more rigid split in which retailers get which products, once again curtailing Arc’teryx’s reach.

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The cloud looming over the running industry

If you were to take the relentless growth narrative around the running industry at face value you would assume everything is looking rosy. Investors see it another way, with Decker(Hoka) and On’s shares down 32% and 12% from the start of the year. There’s plenty of individual reasoning behind each brand’s slow decline, but the FT pointed towards the threat of Trump’s looming import tariffs on the same countries that manufacture the products On and Hoka make as the main culprit.

Any changes to the import costs mean US customers will likely see higher prices to reduce the impact on each company’s margins, potentially depressing short-term demand. Amer was the first to discuss their exposure to Trump’s tariff’s, putting the number at 20% with Wilson, their Tennis brand, having the most risk. Amer was also keen to stress to investors the strength of their Chinese business to calm investor’s jitters about revenue shortfall, but it’s also likely because Amer’s partial owner is Anta, a Chinese sports powerhouse.

We’ll likely begin to see each running brand coming out with their own take on the geopolitical climate, but it’s a reminder to every so often stop sucking on the running industry kool-aid and take in the bigger picture (in other words, continue reading Trailmix 😉).

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Salomon signals further changes to its trail running support

The Golden Trail Series paused the 4^th season of its online video series “Chasing Dreams” after 1 episode.

The series broadcast the Golden Trail Series to a whole new audience during COVID lockdown, routinely bringing in high viewership and dominated the conversation in the community over the January to March off-season for several years. Whilst there has been no official announcement, it has been over 4 months since the 1st episode aired, indicating a change of heart internally. I reached out to the press office to confirm the finding, but found out that their former press officer, Mickael, left in January, leaving just Greg and Lenny Vollet working full time for GTWS, according to LinkedIn. Greg Vollet did not respond for comment.

I wrote about whether GTWS was working for Salomon late last year after they culled the national series and ties with Mont Blanc Marathon. Hugo at Mile&Stone wrote last week that Salomon has consolidated its trail running team into one international team replacing its national set-ups. The combination of all these moves suggests Salomon is pulling back its support for professional trail running, re-focusing its efforts in fewer, larger athletes’ contracts and fewer races.

✳️ Is Golden Trail Working For Salomon?

If we had a group chat…

Viewership of Black Canyon 100k has grown 37% YoY to 83.5K, in-line with other world series’ livestreams, according to Mountain Outpost. Transgrancanaria saw similar numbers at 83K views for its ultra and 62K for its marathon. Creating a consistent quality of livestreaming and coverage across all WTM events is going to be key for it to compete for athletes and brand’s entrants against the likes of UTMB and Golden Trail Series.

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The Speed Project needs no intro, but little has been written about it like Allison Lynch has in her interview with founder Nils Arend. Nil’s commitment to his vision for Speed Project and unwillingness to settle or bow down to a brand’s whims is frankly unheard of and refreshing in running. It has, however, meant that TSP is not raking in the cash, but tbh that doesn’t matter. Nils and his team have proven there is a way to build a business through passion without losing the integrity of their vision to running brand’s demands.

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A new report was released by an investor and a consultant, Tom Matlock and Mikey Yablong, a couple of weeks ago that valued the trail running market in the US between $14-20bn. It’s a detailed piece but methodologically flawed in that the sample recruited for the survey that underpins the research is by no means representative of the trail running population. It’s nice to have and I’m sure it’ll be plastered across investor decks in the US, but like all consulting projects, the first number given is correct until you find a more accurate one. I just hope we do eventually get closer to the truth.

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For those that had Killian Jornet doing a podcast interview with an ex-reality TV show star and a man that used to play 7^th tier English football but whose claim to fame is being on a singing show, X-Factor, twice, on their 2025 bingo card – congrats.

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Sponsorship is both an offensive and defensive move, borrowing credibility from their partner organisation and gaining unique reach whilst blocking competitors from the same positions. Suunto have slowly accumulated their position in trail running by doing such a move, something they've now taken to the UK by sponsoring two of the biggest trail running race organisations, Maverick and Threshold Sports, marking their territory in a way Garmin has failed to do.

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Maurten and District Vision’s new shorts put us one step closer to having a bandolier built purposely for carrying gels and I’m so ready to go full cowboy at my next race.